SportsLine's model nailed 12 of the teams in the Sweet 16 last season and simulated the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket 10,000 times
By Owen OBrien Mar 19, 2026 at 11:26 am ET • 3 min read 
Imagn Images No. 11 seed South Florida is one of the most popular 2026 March Madness upset picks in the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket. The Bulls could pick up even more steam before March Madness bracket picks on Thursday. They are facing No. 6 seed Louisville, which is playing without star freshman point guard Mikel Brown Jr. (back). Brown has been ruled out for at least the first weekend of March Madness 2026, while South Florida is on an 11-game winning streak and in the tournament for the first time since 2012. Which team should you pick in that matchup with your 2026 March Madness picks?
No. 11 seeds win at nearly a 40% clip in the first round since 1985, with at least one No. 11 seed winning a first-round game every year since 2005. Three of those teams have made the Final Four since 2010, including NC State in 2024. Before making any 2026 March Madness bracket predictions, be sure to check out the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91 percent of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn's championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.
It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.
Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.
Three 2026 March Madness Cinderella teams to watch out for
One potential 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket buster is the Akron Zips. Akron is in the NCAA Tournament for the eighth time in school history, but it is seeking its first-ever win in the Big Dance. The Zips won a school-record 29 games this season, surpassing their total of 28 from last season. They are riding a 10-game winning streak and have won 19 of their last 20 games, setting another school record with 88.4 points per game. Texas Tech enters this first-round matchup without star JT Toppin, so Akron has a clear path to make some noise this weekend.
Another potential double-digit darling for 2026 March Madness is No. 13 Hawaii. The Rainbow Warriors took multiple power conference opponents (Oregon and Arizona State) to the brink in single-digit losses this season and finished second in the regular-season standings before putting together their conference tournament run. Hawaii center Isaac Johnson, a 7-footer who began his career at Oregon and also played at Utah State, could pose big problems for John Calipari's squad. The Razorbacks don't have anybody in their rotation listed as taller than 6-foot-10.
Another Cinderella team to watch for is the 13-seed California Baptist Lancers. They took down Utah Valley to win the WAC Tournament and will be looking for an even bigger upset in the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket. The No. 13 seed Lancers, who just became eligible for the postseason in the 2022-23 season after transitioning from Division II in 2018, face No. 4 seed Kansas in the first round on Friday night. Cal Baptist guard Dominique Daniels Jr. ranks fifth nationally in scoring at 23.2 points per game, cracking the 40-point mark multiple times this season. Check out more of the model's 2026 Cinderella picks and full 2026 NCAA bracket picks here.
How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions
Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it's calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.
So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which double-digit seeds you can back with confidence, all from the model that called all four Final Four teams in 2025.
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