Best bets for Thursday's first-round action in the 2026 NCAA Tournament
By Chip Patterson Mar 18, 2026 at 11:02 pm ET • 5 min read 
Getty Images The 2026 NCAA Tournament schedule has reached the point that everyone looks forward to all year round. The first Thursday afternoon, when March Madness truly begins, is on our door step and all that's left is to lock in all your final Bracket Games picks and turn your attention to a game-by-game breakdown of what's ahead in the coming days.
The afternoon slate will be highlighted by some great storylines like Nebraska's shot at a first-ever NCAA Tournament win and the tournament debut for No. 1 overall seed Duke. Then in the evening we will see future NBA Draft star AJ Dybantsa make his NCAA Tournament debut with BYU, see if North Carolina can avoid an upset alert against VCU and see how top teams like Michigan, Houston, Illinois and Gonzaga fare as heavy favorites against lesser seeds.
We will be here each day to get you set for the NCAA Tournament slate with a collection of our favorite picks. We've selected six games from the 16-game slate on Thursday to spotlight, with selections that range from against the spread to totals and even team totals. But don't worry, if straight up picks are more your flavor we've got those as well, courtesy of our panel of CBS Sports experts.
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Ultimate 2026 NCAA Tournament cheat sheet: March Madness stats and facts before you lock in your bracket picks Matt Norlander
(4) Nebraska vs. (13) Troy
12:40 p.m. on truTV | March Madness Live
Nebraska's defense has been outstanding this season, with Fred Hoiberg getting whole-team buy-in on a philosophy that wrecked shop in the Big Ten. The Cornhuskers rated first in the conference play in defensive efficiency and did with an excellent combination of guarding-without-fouling and forcing opponents into bad shots. That was a huge boost when Nebraska's offense would go through shooting slumps, which would happen from time to time.
Troy plays with one of the 10 slowest tempos in the tournament and while they shoot the three-pointer willingly the Trojans rank 219th nationally making them (33.2%). If Nebraska can force Troy to take a lot of 3-pointers and the Trojans miss approximately 65% of those shots the Cornhuskers will secure the school's first-ever NCAA Tournament win. Speaking of, there is a vibes aspect of this pick that is eyeing the anxiety of ending the March Madness drought and wondering if maybe Nebraska isn't a little bit tight down the stretch. Pick: Under 137.5
Gary Parrish 
Matt Norlander 
Chip Patterson 
David Cobb 
Cameron Salerno 
Isaac Trotter NEB -12.5 NEB TROY TROY NEB TROY TROYS/U NEB NEB NEB NEB TROY NEB(6) Louisville vs. (11) South Florida
1:30 p.m. on TNT | March Madness Live
Bryan Hodgson has done a terrific job coming over from Arkansas State to flip the switch for the Bulls and recently-crowned AAC Player of the Year Izaiyah Nelson is a big reason why this group won't be intimidated by Louisville's power conference bona fides. USF employs an attacking style that will set up a matchup with Louisville sure to involve big swings for each team and potentially a close game when we get to the final moments. There is an opportunity for the Cards to respond to what appears to be widespread disrespect in this spot for how they are projected to handle the Bulls given their current injury issues, but the play here is to back the team that is 14-1 in its last 15 games. Pick: South Florida +4.5
Gary Parrish Matt Norlander Chip Patterson David Cobb Cameron Salerno Isaac Trotter LVILLE -4.5 USF USF USF USF USF USFS/U USF USF USF USF USF USF (1) Duke vs. (16) Siena
2:50 p.m. on CBS | March Madness Live
Siena already plays slow and now the team faces a defense that will be by far its biggest challenge of the season going up against one of the best defensive teams in the country. Gerry McNamara could throw in a schematic wrinkle but even the motivation to keep this game competitive points to limiting the possessions. It's possible Duke gets pulled down into a lower-scoring game as well if Riley Mulvey and Siena's front court can do a good job of protecting the rim without fouling. The Blue Devils' offensive outcomes are a bit harder to predict (other than advancing), but the defensive identity will provide a steadiness as the No. 1 seed gets their tournament run underway. Pick: Siena Team Total Under 53.5
Gary Parrish Matt Norlander Chip Patterson David Cobb Cameron Salerno Isaac Trotter DUKE -28.5 SIENA DUKE DUKE DUKE DUKE DUKE S/U SIENA DUKE DUKE DUKE DUKE DUKE(5) Vanderbilt vs. (12) McNeese
3:15 p.m. on truTV | March Madness Live
Mark Byington should have Vanderbilt well-equipped to deal with the disruptive defensive pressure of McNeese, as the Commodores have dealt with similar challenges situationally in SEC play and grade out as a team that's well-equipped to take care of the basketball. When McNeese played Michigan earlier this year and couldn't get its normal diet of turnovers the result was giving up 112 points in an 83 possession game. While the Commodores should not be compared to Michigan's form around Christmas, they are certainly capable of putting up their fair share of points in this matchup. Pick: Vanderbilt Team Total Over 81
Gary Parrish Matt Norlander Chip Patterson David Cobb Cameron Salerno Isaac Trotter VANDY -11.5 MCNS MCNS MCNS MCNS VANDY MCNSS/U MCNS VANDY VANDY VANDY VANDY VANDY (4) Arkansas vs. (13) Hawaii
4:25 p.m. on TBS | March Madness Live
Hawaii has impressive size that should be able to keep Arkansas off the boards and away from the rim, turning the Hogs into a shooting team. That's not ideal in a quick turnaround from cutting down nets in Nashville on Sunday to tipping it off in Portland on Thursday afternoon, where normally you'd want to rely on easy buckets to get into the flow of the game. And while Hawaii has size, its ball-handlers could be overwhelmed by Arkansas' athleticism on defense. Both teams playing with tempo on the year have this total above 160, but with empty possessions in the forecast the edge is to the under. Pick: Under 160.5
Gary Parrish Matt Norlander Chip Patterson David Cobb Cameron Salerno Isaac Trotter ARK -15.5 ARK ARK HAW ARK ARK ARKS/U ARK ARK ARK ARK ARK ARK(6) BYU vs. (11) Texas
7:25 p.m. on TBS | March Madness Live
Texas might be buzzing off its game-winner in Dayton, but hiking out to Portland for a quick prep on stopping AJ Dybantsa does not sound like a ton of fun. The Longhorns showed with their own frustrating inconsistencies in the win why they were a bubble team to begin with, while BYU found some juice late in the season with a victory over Texas Tech and a couple of Big 12 Tournament wins.
Texas might get a jump on the Cougars early for "rest vs. rust" reasons, but over the course of 40 minutes I do not see the Longhorns defense having enough answers to win this game. BYU's combo of Dybantsa and Rob Wright give them the two best players on the floor and if the Cougars commit to getting stops and protecting the rim on defense, its ceiling exceeds its seed. Pick: BYU -2.5
Gary Parrish Matt Norlander Chip Patterson David Cobb Cameron Salerno Isaac Trotter BYU -2.5 BYU BYU BYU BYU BYU BYUS/U BYU BYU BYU BYU BYU BYU Join the Conversation comments 
