SportsLine expert Thomas Casale is 89-53 (+2968) on his college basketball picks and has locked in his Sweet 16 bracket predictions for 2026 March Madness
By Ross Kelly Mar 23, 2026 at 3:46 pm ET • 2 min read 
Imagn Images The 2026 Sweet 16 bracket consists of 12 teams we expected to see, per their seedings, as well as four outliers. Each March Madness region contains three of the top four seeds, along with a lower seed which pulled off an upset or two to reach this round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. No. 5 St. John's, No. 6 Tennessee, No. 9 Iowa and No. 11 Texas are still dancing in March, and none of the four programs have ever won a national championship before. That could provide some extra motivation as they look to survive and advance the second weekend of March Madness 2026.
Meanwhile, three top seeds remain in Duke, Arizona and Michigan. They avoided the upset that No. 1 Florida could not, but there are still numerous roadblocks in their way before a potential Final Four. Going with chalk is popular with March Madness predictions, and it will be interesting to see what trends emerge in the Sweet 16. Before locking in any NCAA Tournament picks or filling out your March Madness bracket 2026, be sure to see the 2026 Sweet 16 picks from top expert Thomas Casale.
A frequent guest on national radio and TV shows to discuss college sports, Casale started playing football sheets at 8 years old when his dad was the local bookie. He's been betting -- and winning -- for more than 30 years. Tom sets his own lines for each game, then looks at the metrics to see where he can find an edge in the number. Over the past three college basketball seasons, Tom is 402-247 (62%) -- all publicly documented. He joined SportsLine in early 2024 and has gone 89-53 in college basketball.
Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket revealed, Casale is predicting matchups for the Sweet 16 and the remainder of the NCAA Tournament. You can only see them over at SportsLine.
Top 2026 March Madness Sweet 16 picks
One of the Sweet 16 picks that Casale likes is No. 1 Michigan easily handling No. 4 Alabama on Friday. These are two of the top-six offenses in college basketball, per KenPom. However, the difference lies on the defensive end where Michigan is also elite but Bama lags way behind. The Wolverines, who rank third in the nation in both blocks and field goal percentage allowed, have college basketball's second-ranked defensive rating. Meanwhile, the Tide allow 82.5 ppg, which is the second-most among this year's NCAA tourney teams and ranks 351st out of 365 Division I teams.
"Don't blink. These two teams are going to race up and down the court. Both rank top 25 in pace, so it will come down to which defense gets more stops. That's where Michigan has a big edge," Casale told SportsLine."... This is the game where Alabama will really miss Aden Holloway. The Tide will likely need to score 90+ to win and I don't think they have the horses without Holloway. Michigan tops 100 and pulls away for an easy win." You can see the rest of Casale's 2026 NCAA bracket picks here.
How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions
Casale has also made his picks for the rest of the NCAA Tournament, including who advances to the Final Four and cuts down the nets. He is backing a major upset as he has a No. 1 seed failing to win its region and advance to the Final Four, so you'll want to see which upset he's predicting before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.
Who is Casale backing in the Sweet 16, and No. 1 seed fails to survive this weekend? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams you can back with confidence, all from the expert who is 89-53 (+2968) on college basketball picks.
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