Jeff Hochman revealed his 2026 Kentucky Derby picks for the first leg of the 2026 Triple Crown on Saturday, May 2 at Churchill Downs
By Daniel Kohn May 1, 2026 at 11:16 am ET • 4 min read 
Imagn Images The 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby will take place on Saturday, May 2 at 6:57 p.m. ET from Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., which will officially kick off the Triple Crown chase. There has not been a Triple Crown winner since Bob Baffert's Justify took the title in 2018, and Baffert actually has trained the past two Triple Crown winners. He has two horses in the field on Saturday with Potente (20-1) and Litmus Test (30-1), but it's Arkansas Derby winner Renegade who is the 4-1 favorite in the latest Kentucky Derby 2026 odds. Bet the Kentucky Derby with the exclusive TwinSpires offer code CBSSPORTS to receive up to $400 in bonus bets here, double what's available to the general public:
Should you make some wagers on Baffert's longshots given the trainer's legendary record, or is there another contending horse like Further Ado (6-1), Commandment (6-1) or Chief Wallabee (8-1) who brings better value? Before locking in any 2026 Kentucky Derby bets, you need to see the 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions and best bets from SportsLine's elite horse racing guru Jeff Hochman.
Hochman has shown a profit in 22 of the past 39 Triple Crown races. One example of his best picks was Big Brown in the 2008 Kentucky Derby at odds of 2-1. More recently, he swept the 2022 Triple Crown, capped off by Mo Donegal's easy win in the Belmont Stakes. In 2023, he cashed the Preakness with National Treasure. In 2024, he successfully tabbed Straight No Chaser to win, place and show in the Grade 2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship at odds of 3-2.
Hochman delivered exceptional handicapping results during the summer 2025 racing season at two of the country's premier tracks, Saratoga and Del Mar. His combined 65.7% win rate across the two tracks represents elite-level performance that significantly exceeds industry benchmarks for professional handicappers.
Now, Hochman has handicapped the 2026 Kentucky Derby field and revealed his picks. Go here to see them.
Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Hochman's surprising 2026 Kentucky Derby picks: One issue with Commandment is his slowdowns at the end of the course, which is a problem given the Kentucky Derby is longer than the Florida Derby. There's also the issue of jockey of Luis Saez lacking Derby success. Saez has 12 starts in the Kentucky Derby and not only has he never won, but he's never finished in the top two.
"Despite winning the Florida Derby, Commandment's 1:49.99 race time is slow compared to recent winners. His peak came in the Fountain of Youth, posting a 99 Equibase Speed Figure, but he dropped to 96 in the Florida Derby. Both finishes were razor-thin-a nose and a neck-revealing his difficulty in separating from rivals when it counts," Hochman told SportsLine. "Additionally, Commandment's jockey situation adds uncertainty." See who to back at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Hochman is high on The Puma, even though he's a 10-1 longshot, and is coming off a tight loss at the Florida Derby last month.
"He finished a close second in the Florida Derby but earned a significantly faster Thoro-graph number (2½) than the winner, Commandment, thanks to his wide trip," Hochman told SportsLine. "Running the final three-eights of a mile in 36.89 seconds and the final eighth in 12.68 seconds should serve him well. He could be a major contender, with odds likely to fall in the mid-tier range. Trainer Gustavo Delgado used a similar approach leading up to this race with Mage in 2023. The Puma has shown grit in every race and should be a key factor in exotic wagers with improving speed figures in every start." See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can sign up for FanDuel Racing here to get $25 in bonuses with a $5 wager:
How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Moreover, Hochman's top pick is a horse with "remarkable finishing speed." He also is high on a double-digit longshot who is "peaking at the perfect moment." Hochman is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2026, and which longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Hochman's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has a 65.7% win rate and has cashed in 22 of the past 39 Triple Crown races.
