Jeff Hochman revealed his 2026 Kentucky Derby picks for the first leg of the 2026 Triple Crown on Saturday, May 2 at Churchill Downs
By Daniel Kohn Apr 30, 2026 at 11:18 am ET • 4 min read 
Imagn Images The first leg of horse racing's Triple Crown gets underway on Saturday at the 2026 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. Laurel Park in Maryland will host the Preakness Stakes two weeks later in place of Pimlico Race Course, which is being renovated. Three weeks after that, Saratoga Race Course will hold the Belmont Stakes for the third and final time before it returns to Belmont Park next year. For the 2026 Kentucky Derby, Renegade is the 4-1 morning-line favorite in the 2026 Kentucky Derby odds.
Commandment (6-1), Further Ado (6-1), Chief Wallabee (8-1) and The Puma (10-1) round out the top five on the odds board among the 20 horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby field. Ocelli (50-1) was drawn into the field on Thursday following the scratch of Fulleffort. Post time for the Kentucky Derby 2026 is 6:57 p.m. ET. Before locking in any 2026 Kentucky Derby bets, you need to see the 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions and best bets from SportsLine's elite horse racing guru Jeff Hochman.
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Hochman has shown a profit in 22 of the past 39 Triple Crown races. One example of his best picks was Big Brown in the 2008 Kentucky Derby at odds of 2-1. More recently, he swept the 2022 Triple Crown, capped off by Mo Donegal's easy win in the Belmont Stakes. In 2023, he cashed the Preakness with National Treasure. In 2024, he successfully tabbed Straight No Chaser to win, place and show in the Grade 2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship at odds of 3-2.
Hochman delivered exceptional handicapping results during the summer 2025 racing season at two of the country's premier tracks, Saratoga and Del Mar. His combined 65.7% win rate across the two tracks represents elite-level performance that significantly exceeds industry benchmarks for professional handicappers.
Now, Hochman has handicapped the 2026 Kentucky Derby field and revealed his picks. Go here to see them.
Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Hochman's surprising 2026 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Commandment (6-1) even though he's one of the favorites. Commandment has four wins in five career races, but a number of wins have been close. He narrowly defeated The Puma at the dirt-fast 2026 Florida Derby on March 28. In February's 2026 Fountain of Youth, he shaded Chief Wallabee for the win on the 1 1/16-mile Gulfstream Park track.
"Despite winning the Florida Derby, Commandment's 1:49.99 race time is slow compared to recent winners," Hochman said. "His peak came in the Fountain of Youth, posting a 99 Equibase Speed Figure, but he dropped to 96 in the Florida Derby. Both finishes were razor-thin—a nose and a neck—revealing his difficulty in separating from rivals when it counts. Additionally, Commandment's jockey situation adds uncertainty. Two Eclipse Award winners, Irad Ortiz Jr. and Flavien Prat, have chosen other mounts for this race. Prat's decision to hop on a 15-1 morning-line colt is very telling. This suggests that leading jockeys question Commandment's upside, no disrespect intended to Luis Saez." See who to back at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Hochman is high on The Puma, even though he's a 10-1 longshot, and is coming off a tight loss at the Florida Derby last month.
"He finished a close second in the Florida Derby but earned a significantly faster Thoro-graph number (2½) than the winner, Commandment, thanks to his wide trip," Hochman told SportsLine. "Running the final three-eights of a mile in 36.89 seconds and the final eighth in 12.68 seconds should serve him well. He could be a major contender, with odds likely to fall in the mid-tier range. Trainer Gustavo Delgado used a similar approach leading up to this race with Mage in 2023. The Puma has shown grit in every race and should be a key factor in exotic wagers with improving speed figures in every start." See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can make 2026 Kentucky Derby futures bets at FanDuel Racing here to get $25 in bonuses with a $5 wager:
How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Moreover, Hochman's top pick is a horse with "remarkable finishing speed." He also is high on a double-digit longshot who is "peaking at the perfect moment." Hochman is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2026, and which longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Hochman's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has a 65.7% win rate and has cashed in 22 of the past 39 Triple Crown races.
