Gene Menez revealed his Kentucky Derby 2026 picks for the Run for the Roses on Saturday, May 2 at Churchill Downs
By Daniel Kohn May 1, 2026 at 10:52 am ET • 4 min read 
Imagn Images Sovereignty was one of the favorites last year before winning the Kentucky Derby. That's potentially good news for Renegade, currently in the top spot with 4-1 Kentucky Derby 2026 odds. Longshots won several of the previous Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs, however, offering hope for many other contenders, and for a potential big payout for those making Kentucky Derby picks. Bet the Kentucky Derby with the exclusive TwinSpires offer code CBSSPORTS to receive up to $400 in bonus bets here, double what's available to the general public:
Commandment (6-1), Further Ado (6-1) and Chief Wallabee (8-1) are chasing Renegade atop the 2026 Kentucky Derby odds board. But if you look at recent history, any horse can make a claim. After all, Country Horse won the 2019 Derby at 65-1 odds, and Rick Strike won it at 80-1 in 2019. Before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions and best bets from SportsLine's elite horse racing expert Gene Menez.
A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI's handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.
A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI's handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.
In 2015, while writing for Sports on Earth, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta (American Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund and Frosted), which paid $1,268.20 for $2. Then in 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet. In 2024, Menez gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. In last year's Kentucky Derby, he hammered the exacta and trifecta for a $1,045 payout. Anyone who has followed his horse racing betting advice could be way up.
Now, Menez has handicapped the 2026 Kentucky Derby field and revealed his picks. Go here to see them. Sign up for FanDuel Racing, where new users get $25 in bonuses with a $5 bet:
Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Menez's surprising 2026 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading the favorite, Renegade, at 4-1. On paper, Renegade is certainly one of the top contenders for your 2026 Kentucky Derby picks. But Menez doesn't believe he should be No. 1.
The lead entrant for legendary trainer Todd Pletcher has won his last two races and never finished worse than third in five career carts. In the final tuneup for the Derby, Renegade bested Debry entrant Silent Tactic at the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. But the draw didn't help the favorite. Renegade will start the 20-horse race in the No. 1 spot. The last time a horse won from No. 1 was in 1986 -- 40 years ago (Ferdinand). Renegade will be trying to beat 20 other horses, and history. See who to back at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Menez is high on Chief Wallabee, even though he's not one of the top-three favorites at 8-1. Chief Wallabee has just three races in his career, and the finishes have descended, taking first in his maiden trip, second in February at the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth, and third at the Grade 1 Florida Derby in March.
That said, Chief Wallabee comes in with a strong strength-of-competition rating. The only horses he's finished behind are Commandment (who won both graded races) and The Puma. Wallabee actually bested The Puma in his first race, and the Chief's Speed ratings in all three events have been contender-worthy. See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks at TwinSpires here with the offer code CBSSPORTS:
How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Menez's top pick is a horse who was "the big winner of the post draw." He also is high on a double-digit longshot who is the "best value in the race." Menez is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2026, and which longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who had a $1,045 payout at last year's race.
