2026 Food City 500 predictions, odds, start time: NASCAR at Bristol picks, best bets by advanced model

Mike McClure's computer model reveals its surprising picks and NASCAR Bristol props for the Food City 500 2026 on Sunday

The Cup Series resumes after a one-week break and heads to Bristol Motor Speedway on Sunday as the 2026 Food City 500 takes place at 3 p.m. ET. NASCAR Bristol picks and Food City 500 DFS lineups will likely gravitate towards Joe Gibbs Racing, as its drivers have won three of the last four spring Bristol races, as well as two of the last three fall races at the track. However, one also can't overlook Kyle Busch with NASCAR at Bristol bets, as he's one win away from a record-setting seventh victory at the spring race. 

Kyle Larson (+340) tops the Food City 500 2026 odds board, followed by Denny Hamlin (+470). Ryan Blaney is at +600, with Christopher Bell at +650, and Chase Elliott is at +1300 to win in back-to-back starts. Tyler Reddick sits atop the Cup Series standings but is a +2500 NASCAR at Bristol longshot with no top 5s over his last seven trips to the track. Before setting NASCAR DFS lineups, making Food City 500 picks or locking in NASCAR Bristol predictions, you need to see the projected leaderboard from Mike McClure's proven model.

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McClure is a legendary professional DFS player with more than $2 million in career winnings. He uses a powerful prediction model that simulates every lap of NASCAR action 10,000 times. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 29 winners since 2021 and hit 11 winners in 2025. Anyone following his NASCAR betting picks at their favorite sportsbooks could have seen huge returns.

Now, McClure has turned his attention to the NASCAR Food City 500. He's only sharing his best bets at SportsLine.

2026 NASCAR at Bristol predictions

For NASCAR at Bristol 2026, McClure is fading Ryan Blaney (+600), saying he barely cracks the top 5 despite being one of the favorites. Blaney won at Bristol on both the Truck Series and the Xfinity Series, but he's yet to carry over those winning ways onto the Cup Series. He's preparing for his 20th start at Bristol and has yet to notch a victory. Over that stretch, he has more finishes outside the top 10 than inside it. While he's been one of the best short track drivers in recent memory, Blaney just hasn't found it at Bristol as he doesn't even have a top-3 finish at the track in his career.

Another surprise: Joey Logano (+1900) is projected to make a strong run towards the title. Logano is a two-time Bristol winner with both recent success at the track and on the Cup Series. He placed fifth in his last Bristol start and is coming off a third-place finish in his most recent race this season. Logano's Bristol Motor Speedway success is just a small part of his overall excellence on short tracks. He has notched five straight top 10s on these types of circuits, and his career average finish of 12.1 on short tracks if topped by just three other active drivers. See which other drivers the model is backing at SportsLine.

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How to make 2026 Food City 500 picks

McClure is also high on three longshots of over +2000 who make a run for the top of the leaderboard, including a pair of massive longshots of at least +4000, potentially netting any backer a huge payday. You can only see who it is here.

So who wins the 2026 Food City 500, and which massive longshots could stun NASCAR at Bristol? Visit SportsLine now to see the 2026 NASCAR Food City 500 picks and best bets from a NASCAR model that nailed 11 winners last year, and find out.

2026 NASCAR at Bristol odds, lineup

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See full NASCAR Food City 500 picks at SportsLine

(Odds from FanDuel, subject to change) Kyle Larson +340 Denny Hamlin +470 Christopher Bell +650 Ryan Blaney +600 Ty Gibbs +750 William Byron +1100 Chase Briscoe +1300 Chase Elliott +1300 Brad Keselowski +1900 Joey Logano +1900 Carson Hocevar +2000 Chris Buescher +2500 Tyler Reddick +2500 Bubba Wallace +3300 Ryan Preece +3500 Austin Cindric +3500 Kyle Busch +4000 Ross Chastain +4000 Josh Berry +5000 Zane Smith +10000 Justin Allgaier +10000 Erik Jones +12500 Michael McDowell +12500 Connor Zilisch +12500 Austin Dillon +15000 Shane van Gisbergen +15000 Daniel Suarez +17500 John Hunter Nemechek +17500 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +17500 AJ Allmendinger +20000 Cole Custer +50000 Todd Gilliland +50000 Ty Dillon +50000 Noah Gragson +50000 Cody Ware +50000 Chad Finchum +50000 Riley Herbst +50000