Heath Cummings breaks down a few players you'll want to avoid in the early rounds
By Heath Cummings May 13, 2026 at 10:51 am ET • 2 min read 
Imagn Images Generally, in my busts column, I like to make the point early and often that my calling someone a bust does not mean I think they are bad at football. If you are in the NFL you are definitely good at football. If you are being drafted high enough to be called a bust, you just may be great at football. Of course, in mid-May, we don't know exactly where ADP will settle by August, so this may be better titled 'Potential Busts' or 'Guys I think everyone is going to draft too high'. Not quite as catchy as Busts 1.0, is it?
Certainly, the most controversial name on my early bust list is Trey McBride. McBride lapped the field at tight end last year and was arguably worth a Round 1 pick based on his production. Of course, you don't get credit in 2026 for 2025 production. And I would argue that McBride's situation has changed enough that you should not count on similar production.
The two most obvious changes in Arizona are a new coaching staff and the team's selection of Jeremiyah Love at third overall. The latter makes it likely the Cardinals run more and throw less; the former makes it likely that McBride's target share falls. Both were outliers last year.
Arizona's 649 pass attempts in 2025 were the most in the NFL. A lot of that was due to game scripts in the second half of the season. They lost their last nine games, and six of those nine losses were by at least three scores. The Cardinals may still be behind a lot in 2026, but it is unlikely they face as many big deficits. When they do pass, I would not expect them to target McBride as often as they have the past three seasons.
As I wrote about in Breakouts 1.0, Drew Petzing ran one of the most tight-end-friendly offenses in the league the past three seasons, with 27% of the team's targets going to tight ends. The Cardinals' new head coach, Mike LaFleur, has run Sean McVay's offense the past three seasons, with 18% of targets going to tight ends. Two rebuttals to this argument are true. One, they didn't have Trey McBride in Los Angeles. Two, the Rams changed gears last year, and threw 25% of their passes to the tight end. But they also led the league in three tight end sets and spread those targets around.
The final reason I expect a step back from McBride is simple regression. He scored six touchdowns on 292 targets in his first three seasons in the NFL. He scored 11 touchdowns on 169 targets last year.
McBride was so much better than everyone else at the position last year that he could lose four points per game and still be TE1 in 2026. That is pretty close to my expectation. There is no way he will be worth a Round 2 pick if that happens, and Round 3 would be a stretch. The tight end position is deeper than ever, with at least six legitimate candidates to be TE1 this year. You can find some of them three or four rounds later than McBride. That is the better play in 2026.
Here are seven more early busts:
Busts 1.0 Projections powered by Sportsline
Patrick Mahomes QB KC Kansas City • #15
Age: 30 • Experience: 10 yrs. Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 126th QB RNK 15th PROJ PTS 360.7 SOS 1 ADP NR 2025 Stats PAYDS 3587 RUYDS 422 TD 27 INT 11 FPTS/G 23.6 This one requires the most ADP projection. In early drafts, people are rightly wary of Mahomes' coming off a major leg injury. But reports are positive and if he is at training camp as expected in July, I expect his ADP to rise in a hurry. I have three big concerns. One, the Chiefs acquisition of Kenneth Walker and the return of Eric Bienemy makes me think they will run significantly more. Two, even if Mahomes is 'healthy' for Week 1, I expect he will run significantly less. Three, they didn't really solve their problems against man defense, namely that they don't have receivers that can regularly beat man coverage. Fewer pass attempts, fewer rush attempts, no huge increase in passing efficiency. That is a bad combination and I am not sure Mahomes will be a top 12 QB in Fantasy this year. 
A.J. Brown WR PHI Philadelphia • #11
Age: 28 • Experience: 8 yrs. Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 33rd WR RNK 14th PROJ PTS 248.2 SOS 1 ADP NR 2025 Stats REC 78 TAR 121 REYDS 1003 TD 7 FPTS/G 14.7 People are much more excited about A.J. Brown in New England than I am. While his efficiency may improve, I do not like to bet on 29-year-old wide receivers bouncing back off career low efficiency. I am also not sure that he will see a big boost in targets in a run-heavy Patriots offense that has traditionally spread the ball around a lot. He is going to end up getting drafted at the two-three turn in drafts and I am not going to be comfortable with him before Round 4. 
Bucky Irving RB TB Tampa Bay • #7
Age: 23 • Experience: 3 yrs. Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 43rd RB RNK 21st PROJ PTS 228.3 SOS 1 ADP NR 2025 Stats RUYDS 588 REC 30 REYDS 277 TD 4 FPTS/G 13.9 We should be getting into the less controversial busts now. Irving still isn't fully recovered from the shoulder injury he suffered in 2025, so there is red flag number one. Possibly due to the shoulder, he was the third most efficient rusher for Tampa Bay last year, behind both Rachaad White and Sean Tucker, red flag number two. The team lost White to free agency, but added Kenneth Gainwell, who had 85 targets last year in Pittsburgh. They also kept Tucker, who took the short-yardage role away from Irving last year. Irving looks like the poster boy for trap backs in 2026, potentially without a large role in the passing game or the work at the goal line. I would not draft him before Round 5. 
Jadarian Price RB SEA Seattle • #8
Age: 22 • Experience: Rookie Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 60th RB RNK 25th PROJ PTS 160.3 SOS 1 ADP NR 2025 Stats RUYDS 0 REC 0 REYDS 0 TD 0 FPTS/G 0 We love rookie running backs and despite the Seahawks insistence that they will stick with a committee I expect Price's ADP to get juiced up when Zach Charbonnet likely starts the year on the PUP. That would be a mistake, as the team still plans on using both Emanuel Wilson and George Holani. Price could be a nice flex, with weekly RB2 upside, but I would be very surprised if he regularly sees even 15 touches per game at any point in the season. The worst thing is that Charbonnet could be back for the most important part of the Fantasy season. I would not draft Price before Round 6 and I prefer him in Round 7. There is a strong possibility he isn't even a good pick there. 
Chuba Hubbard RB CAR Carolina • #30
Age: 26 • Experience: 6 yrs. Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 65th RB RNK 28th PROJ PTS 170.5 SOS 1 ADP NR 2025 Stats RUYDS 511 REC 30 REYDS 223 TD 4 FPTS/G 8.4 Hubbard is going to be 27 at the start of the year and in five seasons he has exactly one year with more than 100 rush attempts and a rush average over 4.0 yards per carry. He has also only topped 40 receptions once in his career. The Panthers have two younger backs, in Jonathon Brooks and Trevor Etienne who could cut into Hubbard's workload, or simply outplay him, like Rico Dowdle did last season. I would much rather draft the young guys late than Hubbard at his likely ADP. 
Mike Evans WR SF San Francisco • #13
Age: 32 • Experience: 13 yrs. Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 68th WR RNK 30th PROJ PTS 213.5 SOS 1 ADP NR 2025 Stats REC 30 TAR 62 REYDS 368 TD 3 FPTS/G 10.6 Mike Evans and Davante Adams are both on my bust list and the tag line could be the same for both: Father Time is undefeated. Evans only played eight games last year and only topped 60 receiving yards in one of those games. He's battled hamstring injuries each of the last two years and posted an abysmal 5.9 yards per target in 2025, by far a career low. The 49ers have been a run heavy team most years under Kyle Shanahan and they are also a team that gives a lower percentage of their targets to wide receivers, with only 51.9% of their passes going to receivers the past three seasons. Evans best chance at being a Fantasy starter is if he is a goal line receiver like Adams was last year, that is a bad bet in the first six rounds of a Fantasy draft. 
Davante Adams WR LAR L.A. Rams • #17
Age: 33 • Experience: 13 yrs. Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 59th WR RNK 25th PROJ PTS 221.4 SOS 1 ADP NR 2025 Stats REC 60 TAR 114 REYDS 789 TD 14 FPTS/G 15.9 Mike Evans and Davante Adams are both on my bust list and the tag line could be the same for both: Father Time is undefeated. Adams' touchdowns masked the fact that he had a pretty gross year in 2025. Due to Puka Nacua, he only had 114 targets in 14 games and he caught a career low 52.6% of those targets. His 56.4 receiving yards per game was his lowest since 2015. Any touchdown regression at all, and there almost certainly will be some, could destroy his Fantasy value. I view him as a WR3, who shouldn't be drafted before late Round 6. Join the Conversation comments 
