A full breakdown of Big Ten win total projections heading into the 2026 season
By Cody Nagel Mar 23, 2026 at 11:36 am ET • 9 min read 
Getty Images The Big Ten has backed up its reputation as the best conference in college football with three straight national championships, and three years into the expansion era, more teams are pushing into that top tier. The gap between contenders and the middle tier has only gotten messier, which also means a far tougher road to Indianapolis.
Projected win totals don't necessarily define a season, but they do shape the expectations that follow a team all fall. They become the first real temperature check on whether a year feels like success or disappointment once December arrives.
Even though kickoff for the 2026 season remains more than five months out, sportsbooks have started posting win totals for Power Four teams. Last year, 10 of the 18 Big Ten teams surpassed the over/under number set in March. Will that be a similar trend this time around?
With that in mind, I went through the schedules of all 18 Big Ten teams and made game-by-game predictions to land on a projected win total in comparison to the early mark for each program.
Odds below via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Illinois
Over/under 7.5 wins
Wins: UAB, Duke, Southern Illinois, Purdue, at Michigan State, at Maryland, Nebraska, Iowa
Losses: at Ohio State, Oregon, at UCLA, at Northwestern
Analysis: Illinois had two of its best seasons in program history with Luke Altmyer at quarterback. But he's no longer in Champaign. Still, it's a gettable 2026 schedule for the Fighting Illini and his replacement, Katin Houser. Even if November brings a couple stumbles, the path sets up well for Illinois to clear the number. Pick: Over 7.5 (+138)
Indiana
Over/under 10.5 wins
Wins: North Texas, Howard, Western Kentucky, Northwestern, at Rutgers, at Nebraska, at Michigan, Minnesota, USC, Purdue
Losses: Ohio State, at Washington
Analysis: Don't expect Indiana to take much of a step back in 2026. The Hoosiers overperformed the odds en route to a national championship last season. Curt Cignetti made several splashes in the portal to fill the departures, including quarterback Josh Hoover coming in from TCU. But with a tougher schedule this time, reaching 11 wins will be a difficult ask. Pick: Under 10.5 (-104)
Iowa
Over/under 7.5 wins
Wins: Northern Illinois, Iowa State, Northern Iowa, at Minnesota, Wisconsin, at Northwestern, Purdue, Nebraska
Losses: at Michigan, Ohio State, at Washington, at Illinois
Analysis: Iowa remains one of the most stable programs in the country under Kirk Ferentz, consistently punching above projections. The Hawkeyes have finished with at least eight regular-season wins in eight of the past 10 full campaigns. They do replace three starters from a Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line, but face five Big Ten opponents with lower projected win totals. Pick: Over 7.5 (-152)
Maryland
Over/under 4.5 wins
Wins: Hampton, at UConn, UCLA, Rutgers, at Purdue
Losses: Virginia Tech, at Nebraska, at Ohio State, Illinois, Wisconsin, at USC, Penn State
Analysis: Maryland is among the FBS leaders in returning starters with 14 -- tied for second-most in the country. However, that doesn't necessarily translate to wins. The Terrapins have just one conference victory in each of the past two seasons. Quarterback Malik Washington offers real upside, but it may not be enough to change the trajectory of Mike Locksley's tenure in College Park. Pick: Over 4.5 (-122)
Michigan
Over/under 8.5 wins
Wins: Western Michigan, UTEP, Iowa, at Minnesota, Penn State, at Rutgers, Michigan State, UCLA
Losses: Oklahoma, Indiana, at Oregon, at Ohio State
Analysis: Michigan appears to have made one of the best coaching hires of the cycle with Kyle Whittingham taking over. But can he bring that same sustained success to Ann Arbor after more than two decades at Utah? Unlike last year, the Wolverines draw Indiana, Oregon and Penn State, plus Ohio State and another non-conference battle against Oklahoma. That's a brutal path to try to reach nine wins. Pick: Under 8.5 (-130)
Michigan State
Over/under 3.5 wins
Wins: Toledo, Eastern Michigan, Northwestern, at Rutgers
Losses: at Notre Dame, Nebraska, at Wisconsin, Illinois, at UCLA, at Michigan, Washington, Oregon
Analysis: Pat Fitzgerald is back in the Big Ten four years removed from his dismissal at Northwestern. For a coach who more often than not produced more with less, why shouldn't Michigan State expect the same? The Spartans will find a way to get at least four wins, with one coming against Northwestern. Pick: Over 3.5 (-150)
Minnesota
Over/under 5.5 wins
Wins: Eastern Illinois, Akron, at Purdue, UCLA, Northwestern, at Wisconsin
Losses: Mississippi State, at Washington, Michigan, Iowa, at Indiana, at Penn State
Analysis: At first glance, this number feels a bit low. Only twice in eight full seasons under P.J. Fleck has Minnesota failed to reach six wins, establishing a consistent baseline. The Golden Gophers return plenty of production, but it comes from a team that went 1-5 against Power Four opponents above .500 and was winless on the road. Still, expect Minnesota to find its way back to a bowl game. Pick: Over 5.5 (-118)
Nebraska
Over/under 6.5 wins
Wins: Ohio, Bowling Green, North Dakota, at Michigan State, Maryland, Washington, at Rutgers
Losses: Indiana, at Oregon, at Illinois, Ohio State, at Iowa
Analysis: This is the quietest offseason Nebraska football has had in a while -- helped by the basketball program's historic run. A split with Dylan Raiola could benefit both sides, and there's now a legitimate quarterback battle between TJ Lateef and transfer Anthony Colandrea. Nebraska may not snap its nine-year streak of losing Big Ten records, but it could finally end its drought against AP Top 25 teams when Washington visits on Halloween. Pick: Over 6.5 (+120)
Northwestern
Over/under 5.5 wins
Wins: South Dakota State, Colorado, Ball State, Rutgers, Illinois
Losses: at Indiana, Penn State, at Michigan State, at Oregon, Iowa, at Ohio State, at Minnesota
Analysis: Northwestern will have a new offensive identity in 2026 with Chip Kelly taking over play-calling duties. He'll need to instill confidence in transfer quarterback Aidan Chiles, who was benched at Michigan State, if the Wildcats want to reach consecutive bowl games. But a brutal schedule -- including road trips to Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon -- makes that climb steep. Pick: Under 5.5 (+100)
Ohio State
Over/under 9.5 wins
Wins: Ball State, Kent State, Illinois, at Iowa, Maryland, at Indiana, at USC, Oregon, Northwestern, at Nebraska, Michigan
Losses: at Texas
Analysis: The last time Ohio State lost more than two regular-season games was 2011, the lone year under then-interim Luke Fickell, so it's fair to expect another double-digit win season. However, this may be one of the toughest schedules Ryan Day has had in Columbus, with games against four of the five other Big Ten teams with the highest projected win totals. And that doesn't even include an early road test at Texas. Still, the Buckeyes have too much talent not to clear this number. Pick: Over 9.5 (-158)
Oregon
Over/under 10.5 wins
Wins: Boise State, at Oklahoma State, Portland State, at USC, UCLA, Nebraska, at Illinois, Northwestern, Michigan, at Michigan State, Washington
Losses: at Ohio State
Analysis: Had Oregon not lost both coordinators to head coaching jobs elsewhere, the Ducks might have been the more likely team to run the Big Ten table, not Ohio State. That trip to Columbus now looms as the most probable loss, but it could be the only one -- setting up a rematch in Indianapolis. With quarterback Dante Moore at the controls and a defense that returns eight starters, Oregon will be pushing for its long-awaited first national title. Pick: Over 10.5 (+116)
Penn State
Over/under 9.5 wins
Wins: Marshall, at Temple, Buffalo, Wisconsin, at Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota, Rutgers, at Maryland
Losses: USC, at Michigan, at Washington
Analysis: Matt Campbell couldn't have asked for a better schedule for his debut at Penn State. He would never say it publicly, but avoiding Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon in Year 1 certainly didn't hurt in pulling him from Iowa State. Drawing six of the eight Big Ten teams with the lowest projected win totals helps, but in more toss-up games, it's hard to lean on a roster still heavily reliant on incoming transfers that followed Campbell from Ames. Pick: Under 9.5 (-148)
Purdue
Over/under 3.5 wins
Wins: Indiana State, Wisconsin
Losses: Wake Forest, at UCLA, Notre Dame, at Illinois, Minnesota, Washington, at Penn State, Maryland, at Iowa, at Indiana
Analysis: Purdue has been the bottom-feeder of the Big Ten the past two seasons. By the time the 2026 campaign kicks off, it'll have been more than 1,000 days since the Boilermakers last won a conference game. Barry Odom is trying to flip the roster with another wave of transfers, but a non-conference slate featuring Wake Forest and Notre Dame doesn't help the matter of trying to build momentum early. Even if Purdue finds a way to steal one against Wisconsin, it's hard to see four wins. Pick: Under 3.5 (-142)
Rutgers
Over/under 4.5 wins
Wins: UMass, at Boston College, Howard, at Northwestern
Losses: USC, Indiana, at Maryland, Michigan, at Wisconsin, Nebraska, at Penn State, Michigan State
Analysis: Antwan Raymond and KJ Duff return as two of the more productive players in the Big Ten at their positions, but without quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis, the ceiling of the Rutgers offense is limited. New quarterback Dylan Lonergan could get some revenge against Boston College, and the conference schedule isn't overwhelming, but there are still too many questions on both sides of the ball to trust this group to reach five wins. Pick: Under 4.5 (n/a)
UCLA
Over/under 5.5 wins
Wins: San Diego State, Purdue, Michigan State, Nevada, Illinois
Losses: at California, at Maryland, at Oregon, Wisconsin, at Minnesota, at Michigan, USC
Analysis: UCLA is attempting to replicate the Indiana blueprint by hiring Bob Chesney from James Madison and flipping the roster through the portal. Quarterback isn't a concern with Nico Iamaleava back for Year 2 as the starter, and new offensive coordinator Dean Kennedy has a strong track record of developing dual-threat quarterbacks. There's enough here to steal one like Illinois, but the Bruins likely need one, maybe two, road upsets to reach a bowl. Pick: Under 5.5 (+122)
USC
Over/under 8.5 wins
Wins: San Jose State, Fresno State, Louisiana, at Rutgers, Washington, at Penn State, at Wisconsin, Maryland, at UCLA
Losses: Oregon, Ohio State, at Indiana
Analysis: This is a prove-it season for Lincoln Riley and USC. It's a playoff-caliber roster with more returning starters than any team in the FBS. The schedule is also one of the more difficult in the Big Ten, which is reflected in the modest win total. Still, even if the Trojans don't beat any of the top three teams on the slate, there are enough winnable games to reach nine wins again. Pick: Over 8.5 (+112)
Washington
Over/under 7.5 wins
Wins: Washington State, Utah State, Eastern Washington, Minnesota, Iowa, at Purdue, Penn State, at Michigan State, Indiana
Losses: at USC, at Nebraska, at Oregon
Analysis: As long as Washington can move past the awkwardness of starting quarterback Demond Williams being halfway in the transfer portal before changing his mind, the Huskies should be a legitimate Big Ten dark horse. A signature win over reigning national champion Indiana could push them into the playoff conversation before a likely loss at Oregon the following week. With this slate, eight wins feels like a fairly attainable benchmark. Pick: Over 7.5 (-144)
Wisconsin
Over/under 6.5 wins
Wins: Western Illinois, Eastern Michigan, Michigan State, at Maryland,
Losses: Notre Dame, at Penn State, at UCLA, USC, at Iowa, Rutgers, at Purdue, Minnesota
Analysis: Luke Fickell bought himself another year at Wisconsin with a pair of top-25 wins last November. Now the question is whether that late momentum carries into 2026 or if the Badgers slide back toward the team that is still 2-12 in its last 14 Big Ten games. The latter outcome feels more likely, even with arguably the easiest schedule in the conference. Pick: Under 6.5 (+114)
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