10 biggest NBA playoff questions: Can Thunder repeat? Is this it for LeBron? Can Knicks handle the pressure?

The postseason officially gets underway on Saturday after the Play-In Tournament

The NBA playoffs are nearly upon us. The final Play-In games for the 8-seeds in both conferences will be determined on Friday evening and the postseason officially gets underway on Saturday. Ahead of that, here are 10 pressing questions as we barrel toward the playoffs.

1. Will the Thunder defend their title?

OKC was the biggest beneficiary of how things shook out on the final day of the regular season. The Thunder had long locked up the 1-seed in the Western Conference and, by virtue of having the best overall record in the league, home court advantage throughout the playoffs. On Sunday, their hopes of winning back-to-back championships got an additional boost thanks to the Nuggets beating the Spurs in San Antonio. If the Nuggets had lost, they would have been the 4-seed -- which would have put them on the same side of the bracket as the Thunder. Had that happened, odds are that Denver and OKC would have met in the second round for the second straight season. You'll of course remember that the Nuggets took the Thunder to seven games in that series before OKC advanced en route to winning its first title. 

Rather than deal with that again, OKC is on a gilded path to another conference finals appearance. The Thunder will face the winner of Friday's Warriors-Suns win-or-go-home 8-seed elimination extravaganza. Neither team projects to mount much resistance (though it would be fun to squeeze a few more playoff performances out of Steph Curry's remarkable career). After that, they're looking at the winner of the hobbled Lakers -- who are likely to be without the services of Luka Dončić or Austin Reaves, both of whom suffered troublesome injuries just as the regular season concluded -- or the Houston Rockets. The Thunder swept all four games against the Lakers this season and beat the Rockets in two out of three meetings. 

Assuming the Spurs and Nuggets both advance and play each other in the second round, whichever team reaches the conference finals will present a significant challenge to the Thunder's title hopes. As Victor Wembanyama is fond of reminding everyone, the Spurs beat OKC in four of their five matchups this season. And this version of the Nuggets is considerably better and deeper than the team that forced Game 7 against the Thunder a year ago. Winning a championship isn't easy, and whichever team emerges as the Eastern Conference champ isn't going to roll over for OKC either -- provided the Thunder even get there. But all that said, OKC will happily take what feels like a fast pass to the conference finals. If they're going to be the first back-to-back champs since the Warriors pulled it off in 2017 and 2018, having a slightly easier playoff schedule can't hurt.

2026 NBA playoff predictions: Expert picks for entire bracket with a wide variety of NBA Finals matchups Brad Botkin

2. Who has the hardest path to a championship?

If the Thunder were the biggest beneficiaries of the Nuggets getting the 3-seed, the Wolves were the biggest losers. Instead of facing the Lakers in the first round for the second straight year, Minnesota will take on Denver. That's a bummer for the Wolves, and not simply because we won't be treated to Anthony Edwards once again trolling the Lakers and the city of Los Angeles.

After dispatching the Lakers in five games last postseason, the Wolves did the same thing to the Warriors, who were without Steph Curry for almost the entire series due to a hamstring strain. This time around, the Wolves have a much more difficult road ahead. 

Minnesota lost three of four games against Denver this season. If they can crack the code and get past the Nuggets, the Spurs loom in the second round. The Wolves took two out of three against the Spurs this season, but Victor Wembanyama only played in one of those games and he was on a minutes restriction. Not to mention that the Spurs were the hottest team in the NBA from February on, winning 30 of their last 34 games. If the Wolves somehow also get past San Antonio, then all they have to do is beat the defending champions in a series where OKC will have home court advantage in a building where they've only lost seven times all season. Minnesota's hopes of reaching a third straight Western Conference Finals aren't looking good, let alone the Wolves' aspirations of advancing beyond that and winning a title. 

3. Can the Spurs defy history?

By any measure, the Spurs surpassed expectations this season and established themselves as legitimate title contenders. San Antonio finished third in both offensive and defensive rating, and had the second-best record and point differential in the league behind only OKC. It helps that they have Wemby, who has emerged as a top-three MVP candidate and should be the runaway winner for Defensive Player of the Year. 

The oddsmakers are appropriately smitten. The Spurs are +500 on FanDuel to win it all. Only the Thunder (+115) are bigger favorites (the Celtics are tied at +500). 

But while there's a lot to like about the Spurs, history indicates that they have a tough task ahead. San Antonio hasn't made the playoffs since 2019 and hasn't won a series since 2017. Most of the players on the roster have little to no postseason experience. Over the last 20 years, 11 teams have won 50-plus games during the regular season before going into the playoffs with the same kind of youth and postseason inexperience as the Spurs. Of those, only two -- the 2006-07 Jazz and the 2020-21 Suns -- even reached the conference finals. You have to go all the way back to the 1976-77 Portland Trail Blazers, led by Bill Walton, to find a team with a similar profile that took home the trophy. That's a lot to ask, but if any team can pull it off, it would be the one led by Wemby.

4. Could this be the last we see of LeBron?

Everything was going pretty well for the Lakers -- until it wasn't. As of the penultimate week of the season, the Lakers had won 15 of 17 and went into a game at Oklahoma City looking to make a statement. And they did, it just wasn't the sort of statement they'd hoped. Not only did they get blown out by 43 -- their worst loss in years -- but Dončić suffered a hamstring strain and Reaves went down with an oblique injury. It's unlikely either of them is available for their first-round series against the Rockets.

Even when they were at full strength, the Lakers were painfully top-heavy. As JJ Redick pointed out, they were at their best this season when LeBron was third in usage rate. This isn't much of a spoiler, but James should lead the Lakers in usage by a healthy margin against Houston. L.A. doesn't have much of a choice. After Luka and Reaves went down, they bumped up Luke Kennard in the rotation. He rewarded that promotion by going for his first career triple-double against the tanking Mavericks -- and the Lakers still lost to Dallas.

The point here is that the Lakers could get a vintage series from LeBron where he stuffs the box scores and they still lose to the Rockets. At that point, everyone will be wondering about James's next step. James played 60 games this season and put up impressive numbers in his new supporting role. But even though he's still playing at a high level, he's 41 and will be a free agent this offseason.

James wanted a new contract last year but the Lakers smartly declined, choosing instead to optimize cap space this offseason and next as they attempt to rebuild on the fly around Luka. (Reaves has a player option that he will almost certainly decline, making him the Lakers' top priority this summer.) LeBron looked excellent as the third option. Would he be willing to take a significant pay cut to stay in L.A.? Or are there teams out there that might offer more than the Lakers and convince him to move on? 

The third option is that James calls this 23rd season his last and retires. That feels like the least likely. Even as the oldest player in NBA history, James remains one of the best talents in the league. Hard to imagine him hanging it up when he still has so much game left. Harder still to believe he'd just fade into the shadows without announcing his retirement ahead of time and going on a Kobe-esque season-long retirement tour where he's celebrated in every arena league-wide. 

5. How much pressure are the Knicks facing?

A lot. When the Knicks reached the Eastern Conference Finals last postseason for the first time in 25 years, New York City was overjoyed.

Knicks fans celebrated like their team had just won a championship. They hadn't. Instead, all that excitement was washed away and the bing bongs went quiet when New York was dispatched from the postseason by the plucky Pacers in six games. 

The Knicks came into this season with the hopes of not just returning to the conference finals but advancing beyond it to win their first championship since 1973. It's been a long wait. Ending that drought won't be simple. 

New York goes into the playoffs at +2000 to win it all, giving the Knicks the seventh-best odds behind the Thunder, Spurs, Celtics, Nuggets, Cavs and Pistons. Of those squads, New York had by far the worst record against teams that were .500 or better this season, going just 23-23. That's concerning given the obvious fact that every team the Knicks will face from here on will have a winning record. Against the six teams with better championship odds, the Knicks went 8-8. If New York fans are looking for positives, they won three out of four against the Celtics, though Jayson Tatum didn't play in the first three and Jaylen Brown missed the last one. Less encouraging: the Pistons won all three games against the Knicks and outscored them by a total of 84 points. 

Anything short of an Eastern Conference Finals appearance would be a disappointment for the Knicks -- at the very least. And when you have designs on winning a championship, you first have to make the Finals. If they don't, it will be a tough offseason. They fired their head coach last summer. It's unlikely they pull that lever again, which leaves them with fewer options to shake things up. New York already reportedly dangled Karl Anthony-Towns at the trade deadline. Might they do it again this offseason if they don't make a deep postseason run? Might they consider breaking up their talented two-way win duo of OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges to shuffle the deck? The stakes are pretty high in New York -- and that's assuming they even make it to the second round to face the Celtics.

6. Which team has the best shot at a first-round upset?

Congrats to everyone who used the context clues and landed on the Hawks. New York could not have been thrilled when Atlanta ended up with the 6-seed. The Knicks would have much preferred facing the Raptors, who they beat all five times they faced each other this season. 

New York went 2-1 against the Hawks, but one of those wins was in late December before Atlanta had reconfigured its roster and started playing its best basketball. Since the All-Star Break, only the Spurs, Thunder and Celtics had better records than the Hawks. Over that period, Atlanta had a top-10 offense and the second-rated defense behind only OKC. Jalen Johnson has become a star, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker -- who might win Most Improved Player -- has grown from a useful bench player in Minnesota into a plus-starter in Atlanta. It's not hard to imagine those two guys hunting KAT and Jalen Brunson, a strategy that teams often favor when looking to expose the Knicks' two weakest links on defense. 

The Knicks are still the favorites to win the series, but the gap between the two teams is close enough that it would not be surprising if the Hawks are the ones that move on. 

7. While we're discussing expectations, who else is under pressure?

Like the Knicks, the Cavaliers have something to prove this postseason. And, like the Knicks, they're still recovering from getting bounced from last postseason by Indiana. A year ago, Cleveland spent much of the season atop the Eastern Conference standings before the Pacers kicked them to the offseason curb in five games. The Cavaliers dealt with some injury issues in that series, but those excuses won't get them very far.

This season -- with Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton recovering from Achilles tears and the Celtics and Pacers theoretically taking steps back as a result (only one of which unfolded) — it initially appeared that Cleveland's biggest competition was out of the way, clearing a path for the Cavs to take over the East. That obviously didn't happen. Cleveland got off to a slow start, going just three games over .500 through the end of December. It wasn't until the new year that the Cavs got going -- and even then they decided that upgrades were needed when they traded 26-year-old Darius Garland for 36-year-old James Harden. 

That is the signal of a team desperate to win. If the postseason goes sideways again, things could get uncomfortable in Cleveland. Donovan Mitchell will be a free agent in 2027. Might he ask out? Would they think about moving last year's Defensive Player of the Year, Evan Mobley, in an attempt to pry Giannis away from Milwaukee? And would last season's Coach of the Year, Kenny Atkinson, be in danger of hitting the unemployment line? To avoid any/all of this being floated, the Cavaliers have to make the conference finals at a minimum. And even that might not be enough to declare this season a success. 

8. OK, so who's the favorite in the East?

It wasn't supposed to be the Celtics -- but it's the Celtics. You can't keep that organization down. Not only did they lose Tatum in the playoffs to an Achilles injury, but Brad Stevens spent last summer methodically dismantling a championship roster in order to avoid paying half a billion dollars for this year's team. Out went Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford and Luke Kornet as cost-cutting measures. Everyone figured that would spell doom for Boston this season. Everyone except the Celtics in general and Joe Mazzulla in specific.

The Celtics were arguably the biggest surprise of the season, finishing second in the Eastern Conference. They were second in offensive rating, fourth in defense and fourth in point differential. And that's in a season where Tatum played just 16 regular-season games. They were good without him. Then they added a perennial first-team All-NBA selection before the playoffs. It's criminal. 

In Tatum's absence, Jaylen Brown had a top-five MVP season, Derrick White is once again headed for All-Defense honors and Neemias Queta morphed into a critical component in a thin frontcourt. Mazzulla also turned Baylor Scheierman, Hugo Gonzalez, Jordan Walsh, Luka Garza and a bunch of other backups into useful rotation pieces. 

There's a reason why the Celtics are tied with the Spurs for the second-best odds to win it all at +500. Unfortunately for everyone else in the East, this is what Boston does.

9. Fair. But are the Pistons being overlooked here?

Thank you for asking. The Pistons have been overlooked all season and it's maddening. Detroit has been atop the Eastern Conference almost the entire season, and still they don't get the respect they deserve. The Celtics are the favorites to win the East at +145. Fine. But the Cavaliers also have better odds at +320, compared to the Pistons at +480. And until last week, the Knicks were also favored to win the conference over Detroit -- the same Detroit team that absolutely mauled New York in all three meetings. Given all that, the Pistons could be forgiven for feeling a bit insulted.

Perhaps part of them being underrated is owed to their grind-it-out style. They win the way you'd expect a Detroit team to win: by dominating down low and playing lockdown defense. The Pistons were first in points in the paint and fourth in opponents points in the paint, and second in defensive rating. That has a lot to do with Jalen Duren making a sizable leap this season that will land him a fat new contract this summer. And before he suffered a collapsed lung, Cade Cunningham was having a no-doubt first-team All-NBA season.

When Cunningham went down, a lot of people figured the Pistons would struggle. Detroit was ninth in offensive rating, but he led the team in usage by a wide margin. Even with Daniss Jenkins emerging as a big part of the rotation, they're thin at guard and don't have much reliable shooting outside of Duncan Robinson. And yet the Pistons went 9-3 in Cunningham's absence. That record could have been 10-2 because they nearly beat OKC on their own floor before losing in overtime with a short-handed roster. 

JB Bickerstaff has convinced a bunch of try-hards that they can be the best team in the East by playing tough defense and knowing their roles. At some point, we should believe our lying eyes that Detroit is just as good as the record and 1-seed indicate.

10. Do any of the Play-In teams have a chance at a first-round upset?

Nope. It's 1-2-3 Cancun time for the lot of them.