you know what they say about history

If the past is any indication, President Biden shouldn’t expect a big jump in his dismal poll numbers between now and Election Day in November, according to an analysis from Roll Call.

In over 70 years “there hasn’t been a single president who substantially improved his job approval rating from late January/early February of a midterm election year to late October/early November,” Roll Call reports, per Gallup polling. And in the last 18 midterms, going all the way back to 1950, “the average president’s job approval rating dropped 8 points between this time of year and Election Day.”

That said, in the most recent Gallup survey conducted Jan. 3-16, Biden’s approval rating was at 40 percent. For context as to how ratings have played out in midterms past, former President Barack Obama had a 45 percent approval rating when Republicans gained 63 seats in 2010. And in 1994, the GOP took over 53 seats when former President Bill Clinton had fallen to a 46 percent job approval rating, per Roll Call. 

As for what might change Biden’s odds ahead of November … there’s not much he can do that will be seen as a bonus, claims Roll Call. What’s more likely to affect the race is the GOP perhaps standing in their own way, what with former President Donald Trump’s omnipresence and ongoing efforts to relitigate the 2020 election. “In short,” writes Roll Call, “Republicans could discredit themselves as alternatives if enough voters are turned off by who they are and what they stand for.”

But perhaps until and only if that happens, however, “Republicans are on the path to the majorities.” Read more at Roll Call.