It’s been a tough week for Kristen Stewart’s Oscar campaign. 

The nominations for the 2022 Screen Actors Guild Awards were unveiled Wednesday, and they included a few major surprises. The biggest was the fact that Stewart, who was long seen as the Oscar frontrunner for her performance as Princess Diana in Spencer, was not nominated in the lead actress category. 

Instead, the lead actress nominees were Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Olivia Colman for The Lost Daughter, Lady Gaga for House of Gucci, Jennifer Hudson for Respect, and Nicole Kidman for Being the Ricardos. Stewart’s omission was quite a shock after months of pundits predicting she would win Best Actress at the Academy Awards or at the very least be one of the nominees. 

Winners at the SAG Awards don’t always line up with the Oscars, but the eventual Oscar winner tends to be at least nominated by SAG. There are exceptions, perhaps the most famous in recent memory being when Regina King won the Best Supporting Actress Oscar in 2019 for If Beale Street Could Talk after getting snubbed at the SAG Awards. Still, there’s enough overlap for this to raise a red flag for Stewart, and last year’s acting winners at the Oscars were all performers who had previously earned SAG nominations. Other SAG surprises included Javier Bardem unexpectedly being nominated for Being the Ricardos. 

Stewart’s SAG snub also comes days after she lost the lead actress in a drama award at the Golden Globes to Kidman, who plays Lucille Ball in Being the Ricardos. Could Kidman go on to beat Stewart at the Oscars, too? Stewart may not be out of the race entirely, but winning the Oscar will clearly be more of an uphill climb than pundits once thought.